Paul Craig vs. André Muniz UFC on ESPN+ 82 Odds, Time, and Prediction

Paul Craig vs. André Muniz is one of the UFC on ESPN+ 82 fights in which we could see an upset. Muniz is coming to The O2 Arena as the betting favorite, but Craig is someone who just loves to stage surprises.

“Bearjew” as he calls himself is making his middleweight debut this Saturday after spending years fighting in the light heavyweight division of the UFC. During that period, we saw him defeat a number of elite fighters, including the former champ Jamahal Hill and a former title challenger Magomed Ankalaev.

Obviously, the Scotsman was the underdog against those fighters, but he showed the world he’s a force to be reckoned with. Can he do the same on July 22 against Muniz? Let’s see!

*Odds taken from BetUS on Wednesday, July 19, 2023.

When, Where, and How to Watch?

• Place: The O2 Arena, London, England
• Date: Saturday, July 22, 2023
• Time: 3:00 p.m. (Eastern Time)
• How to Watch: ESPN+

Paul Craig Hoping to Bounce Back After Two Straight Losses

Paul Craig is 16-6-1 overall with seven Performance of the Night bonuses in the UFC. Four of those happened during his six-fight undefeated run from 2019 to 2022. Then, he suffered a unanimous decision loss to Volkan Oezdemir.

He got beaten up by Oezdemir and was lucky not to get finished. But six months later, he did get finished. Johnny Walker was the fighter who beat him by a TKO in round 1.

It was a humiliating defeat, but no one can say it was unexpected. The thing is that Walker is one hell of a striker, and Craig just doesn’t cope well against such fighters. He’s got a negative striking differential (2.44 significant strikes landed on average and 2.88 absorbed), meaning that he gets beaten up in almost every fight.

Instead of striking, his forte is grappling. He’s incredibly good on the floor, with a submission-to-win ratio of 81.25%. The bad news for the Scotland-based fighter is that his opponent too is a great grappler.

All the Reasons Why Andre Muniz is Favored to Win on July 22

Andre Muniz is a well-rounded striker with experience in Muay Thai, which explains why he absorbs only 1.74 significant strikes per minute. He moves quickly and is very difficult to hit. He’s also very difficult to take down, the evidence being that he’s suffered only seven takedowns in his eight UFC fights.

Muniz also doesn’t seem to care much about getting taken down as his grappling skills are so good that he can easily turn a TD into a submission win. The proof of this is that he’s got 15 wins by this method in his portfolio, four of which have happened since he came to the UFC.

Paul Craig vs. André Muniz Prediction

André Muniz doesn’t have the power to knock out Paul Craig, and when it comes to grappling, the two are pretty much the same skills-wise. However, knowing that “Bearjew” is coming down a division, he’s probably stronger than his opponent, which is one of the main reasons why he’s our pick for this fight.

Pick: Paul Craig to win